The Demographics for the specific area of Moray are very sketchy as there was no official census and rentals are not a reliable source, as they tend to miss out great swathes of society.
Overall the best estimates [1] are that in 1500 the population of the whole of Scotland was 500,000, which had probably recovered from the Black Death in 14th Century. By 1600 the population had grown by 60% to 800,000 and by 1691 had reached 1.234 million. Severe winters and poor crops had their toll on the population (see Famine) and certainly during this time there were movements towards the burghs where the death rate was alarmingly high due to illness in the from smallpox, bubonic plague, the Black Death as well as whooping cough and influenza. By 1755 population was estimated to 1.265 million hardly any progress within 50 years, only by 1801 do we see any major increase with population rising to 1.608 million.
Estimated Population of Scotland
| 1500 | 1600 | 1691 | 1755 | 1801 | 1841 | 1911 |
| 500,000 | 800,000 | 1,230,000 | 1,260,000 | 1,608,000 | 2,620,000 | 4,761,000 |
The proportion of Scots that lived in a Burgh or urban surroundings was lower than that of England, Scottish urbanization being about a century behind the English trend. By 1700 only 5% of the population were in towns.
Proportion of Population living in towns.
| 1600 | 1650 | 1700 | 1750 | 1800 | |
| Scotland | 3% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 9% | 17% |
| England & Wales | 5.8% | 8.8% | 13.3% | 16% | 20% |
Average life expectancy in the 17th century in Scotland was about 31 – 32 years. In the Western Lowlands of Scotland this average was a little higher at 36 years of age perhaps reflecting geographical differences in weather and poverty.
However this very low average does not tell the whole story in as much as child mortality played an enormous part. Furthermore there was a difference between Urban and Rural environments. Figures [2] for the whole Britain show that the overall infant mortality rate, from 0 years to 1 year old (1q0) was 238 / 1000 live births in Urban areas. This fell to 127 / 1000 live births in from 1 years old to 4 years old (1q4).
Mortality Rates in Britain 1500 – 1690 / Deaths per 1000 live births
| Period | Urban | Rural | ||
| 0q1 | 1q4 | 0q1 | 1q4 | |
| 1500 – 1550 | 236 | 115 | 169 | 87 |
| 1600 – 1649 | 229 | 121 | 164 | 91 |
| 1650 – 1690 | 250 | 145 | 179 | 109 |
In rural areas the mortality rate was considerably lower. Urban areas and burghs meant much higher exposure to disease. Throughout the whole Europe this trend of exposure could be matched against Income and Johanssen (3), has shown the relationship as a difference of 20 years between exposure and income:
Average Life Expectancy at Birth in Europe 1600, according to Exposure to disease and Income.
| High Income |
40 | 35 | 30 |
| Medium Income |
35 | 30 | 25 |
| Low Income |
30 | 25 | 20 |
| Low Exposure |
Medium Exposure |
High Exposure |
However as stated before infant mortality had a major influence on the statistics. Once an individual made it to 30 their life expectancy grew to about 60 years old.
Obviously another factor of the crude birth right in a country with the religious context that Scotland (and indeed much of Western Europe) was the ability and willingness to get married. Couples generally waited until they could form a household before getting married and this meant the availability of small tenancies in the rural environment. As a result there was a late marriage age – on average in the 17th and 18th centuries women got married 26.7 years of age and 20.5% remained single and celibate. This meant a lot of lost opportunity for population growth.
The Speymouth demographic then covers three main variables – part of Scotland where the life expectancy was lower than England, low income but low exposure to disease. If we take James Loggy as an example, he was born in 1664 most likely died very shortly after birth as his mother gave birth to his brother Andrew the following year. According to the parish records Andrew lived to a very ripe age of 75 years old. Of his 5 children 3 probably died as infants and 2 lived to 57 and 40 years respectively. These ages are well above the national averages.
Another factor was the emigration, what has become known as the Scottish Diaspora. Although the shear numbers are much greater in the 19th and 20th centuries the percentage was still high in the 18th century. Between 1700 and 1815 it is estimated [4] that between 80,000 to 90,000 people emigrated from Scotland representing between 5 – 10% in the time period. This is a large loss for society and represents a significant negative effect on population given that emigration would appeal more to people in the child rearing demographic.
The nature of nutrition also plays a major part in life expectancy and can be reflected in the height of individuals. Generally of course the people of this time were shorter than their modern day equivalents. Paleopathological studies4 [4] of individuals buried in Scotland have shown that between 1200 and 1500 the average male was 5′ 7” and females were 5′ 2”.
1 R. E. Tyson, “Population Patterns”, in M. Lynch, ed., The Oxford Companion to Scottish History (New York, 2001), pp. 487–8.
2 MEDICS, MONARCHS AND MORTALITY, 1600-1800: ORIGINS OF THE KNOWLEDGE-DRIVEN HEALTH TRANSITION IN EUROPE, S. Ryan Johansson, University of Oxford, Discussion Papers in Economic and Social History, Number 85, October 2010
3 Idem
4 T.M. Devine, “To the Ends of the Earth”, Chapter 4
5 Spalding, RN; Sinclair, DJ; Cox, A; Morely, KD. Dry Bones: A Paleopathological Study of Skeletal Remains From a Medieval Graveyard in Dundee. Scottish Medical Journal 1996, 41:56-59, p. 57.
